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Good Money Chasing Bad

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Yet another announcement that the interest rate for Central Provident Fund (CPF) Special and Medisave accounts (SMA) will remain at 4 percent from April to June 30. The Government had already announced in September last year that the floor rate for SMA would be maintained at 4 percent until Dec 31 this year. This periodic broadcast is just a painful reminder that our CPF pays a petty 2.5 percent, while the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) (Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Pekerja) across the Causeway declared a 6.35 percent dividend for 2013 (6.15 percent in 2012).

Earnings from savings in the SMA is pegged to the 10-year Singapore Government Securities (10YSGS) yield plus 1 percent, or 4 percent, whichever is higher. The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) website provides the link between CPF and SGS:
Q. Does GIC invest CPF monies?
A. The short answer is that GIC manages the Government’s reserves, but as to how the funds from CPF monies flow into reserves which could then be managed by either MAS, GIC or Temasek, this is not made explicit to us. What we do know from public sources: Singaporeans’ CPF funds are invested in bonds called Special Singapore Government Securities (SSGS) which are fully guaranteed by the Government.

According to its Annual Report, Temasek’s Total Shareholder Return (TSR) for the year as of 31 March 2013 was 8.86%. Compounded annual return to shareholder over the past decade was 13% while TSR since the company’s inception in 1974 was 16%. Impressive.

Moody says different. Explaining why the offer to buy the remaining shares in Olam International is credit negative, Moody's vice-president Alan Greene said Olam's dividend yield of 2 percent in 2013 is "well below" Temasek's overall dividend income yield of about 3 percent in the year to March 2013. Temasek must have a basket of super performing investments to make up for the proposed cash injection into a commodities firm with a gross debt of $9.1 billion and EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation) of just $1.2 billion. Analysts said they did not expect a competing offer for Olam; only fools rush in where angels fear to tread.


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